供需格局维持宽松平衡 玻璃短期可能仍偏弱震荡

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1035.00 yuan and closing at 1039.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.35% [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The glass market sentiment has shifted from strong to weak, leading to price corrections and a wide range of fluctuations expected in the short term [2] - The overall supply-demand balance in the glass market remains loose, with no significant marginal drivers anticipated, and the main contract is expected to trade within a range of 1015-1125 yuan/ton [2] - The macroeconomic sentiment is weakening, contributing to the weak performance of glass prices, with a slight increase in production capacity to 15.07 million tons [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily melting volume of glass remains low, and there are no clear plans for significant production recovery in the short term [2] - Demand from downstream processing plants is subdued as they enter holiday mode, with overall inventory levels still significantly higher than the same period last year [2] - Recent data indicates a slight decrease in national float glass inventory, but trade merchants are still facing considerable inventory pressure [3][4] Group 3: Regional and Seasonal Factors - Inventory reduction has been more pronounced in specific regions such as Shahe and Hubei, while major sales areas like South China and East China have also seen slight inventory declines [4] - The market is facing seasonal pressures as the upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased inventory accumulation during the off-peak season [4] - The order days for deep processing increased by 7.9% month-on-month and 86.4% year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected demand in the short term [4]