国内企业库存下降 尿素期货依然有偏强预期

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures experienced a slight increase of 0.62%, with the main contract closing at 1779.00 yuan, indicating a positive outlook for the market despite current challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The main urea futures contract reached a peak of 1782.00 yuan during trading, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - Urea prices from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are reported between 1680-1720 yuan per ton, with limited low-price transactions due to a cold market atmosphere [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply remains stable with no significant production halts planned, and daily production is around 200,000 tons [2]. - Agricultural demand is improving, with a notable increase in compound fertilizer factory operations and inventory levels, although actual purchasing remains limited [2][3]. - Short-term fluctuations in the UR2605 contract are expected to remain within the 1750-1800 yuan range, influenced by stable production and limited agricultural demand during the traditional off-season [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Production Insights - Inventory levels have decreased to below one million tons, with expectations of continued inventory reduction as pre-holiday purchasing increases [2]. - The recovery of some production facilities is anticipated to support domestic urea output, although the overall impact on production levels is expected to be limited [3].