Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the wealth effect from medium to long-term capital entering the market will continue to drive retail funds into the market, leading to improved performance in the brokerage sector, supported by both allocation power and performance improvement [1] - The report recommends increasing holdings in quality leading brokerages that benefit from incremental capital entering the market, specifically mentioning Huatai Securities (601688.SH) and China International Capital Corporation (03908) [1] - The expected significant improvement in the performance of listed brokerages includes a year-on-year increase of 46.4% in net profit attributable to shareholders, with projected adjusted operating revenue rising by 34.1% to 565.7 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2 - Active trading has driven a high increase in market transaction volume and margin financing balance, which supports the growth of retail business and self-operated business, contributing to the overall performance growth of brokerages [2] - For 2025, the brokerage and credit business is expected to contribute 50.4% to revenue growth, while investment business is projected to contribute 45.5% [2] - In retail business, the average daily trading volume of stock funds is expected to reach 20,576 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, and the average daily margin financing balance is projected to reach 20,793 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33% [2]
国泰海通:零售及自营业务驱动券商业绩全年高增 推荐华泰证券(601688.SH)、中金公司(03908)