中邮证券：缺席有色金属牛市 镍品种存在一定高弹性补涨可能

Core Viewpoint - Nickel is notably absent from the 2024 commodity bull market, with a price increase of only 3% since the beginning of 2024, significantly lagging behind other metals such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, cobalt, and lithium [1] Supply Analysis - Indonesia plays a crucial role in nickel supply, holding 55 million tons of nickel reserves, accounting for 42% of the global total. Brazil and Australia have reserves of 16 million tons and 24 million tons, representing 12% and 18% respectively [1] - Global nickel production is projected to reach 3.52 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. By 2025, production is expected to rise to 3.81 million tons, with an 8.2% year-on-year growth. Indonesia's nickel production is forecasted at 2.2 million tons in 2024, making up about 60% of global supply, and is expected to increase to 67% by 2025 [1] Smelting and Profitability - The analysis of Indonesian nickel smelting indicates that the wet process (HPAL) is currently profitable due to high cobalt prices, while the pyrometallurgical process (RKEF) is struggling with high nickel ore prices and poor downstream nickel-iron prices, leaving many manufacturers at breakeven [2] Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel remains the dominant driver of nickel demand, with a projected demand of around 2.3 million tons in 2025, accounting for 65%. The demand for ternary batteries is expected to grow at only 7%, with an annual demand of approximately 480,000 tons, representing 14% [3] - Global stainless steel production is expected to reach 62.62 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 7%, compared to 58.45 million tons in 2023, which saw a 5.78% increase. The demand for stainless steel is relatively stable, with low correlation to real estate and infrastructure, primarily driven by the manufacturing sector [3] - The demand for ternary battery materials has not met market expectations, primarily due to competition from lithium iron phosphate battery vehicles. Although new energy vehicle sales grew by 27% from January to November 2025, the growth rate for ternary material shipments was only 7%, indicating structural changes in the new energy vehicle market [3] Policy Impact - Recent Indonesian government policies have tightened regulations on the development of strategic minerals, particularly nickel, reversing previous expectations of a relaxed market. This could significantly impact the supply-demand balance [4] - Demand growth for stainless steel and ternary batteries is expected to maintain overall growth rates of 4.2% and 3.8% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. However, if Indonesia's 250 million ton quota policy is implemented, nickel supply could decrease by about 8% in 2026, potentially leading to a market shortfall of around 100,000 tons [4]