1月21日白银晚评：聚焦特朗普达沃斯讲话 银价徘徊于95美元附近

Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, particularly between the US and EU, are increasing the attractiveness of safe-haven assets like silver, while the dollar's appeal is diminishing due to a cautious outlook on global economic growth [3]. Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.607, while spot silver is priced at $95.03 per ounce, having opened at $94.64 and reaching a high of $95.48 and a low of $93.33 during the day [1]. - The latest prices for silver include: - Spot silver: $95.03 per ounce - Silver T+D: ¥23,228 per kilogram - Paper silver: ¥21.263 per gram - Shanghai silver futures: ¥23,131 per kilogram [2]. Fundamental Analysis - President Trump's firm stance on Greenland and threats of tariffs against certain EU countries are raising concerns about further deterioration in the global trade environment [3]. - The European Parliament plans to pause the approval process for the US-EU trade agreement from July, with the EU signaling potential countermeasures against US goods, indicating a risk of escalating US-EU tensions [3]. - In this uncertain geopolitical climate, the appeal of safe-haven assets like silver is increasing, while the dollar's attractiveness is declining due to a cautious outlook on global economic growth [3]. - Recent robust US labor market data has led to a delay in market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts until June [3]. - The upcoming World Economic Forum will be crucial, with Trump's speech and policy statements from the US, China, and EU, as well as discussions on AI and wealth distribution, likely to influence market expectations [3]. Trading Strategy - On the daily chart, silver prices remain above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.96, maintaining a bullish trend [4]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73.38, indicating an overbought condition, which may suggest a brief consolidation despite the strong trend [5]. - The distance between price and moving averages is widening, indicating a continuation of the trend, while any pullback may find support near the rising average [5].