7月以来首回升!烟草与航空推高英国12月CPI，但“一次性”因素难改降息预期

Core Viewpoint - The UK inflation rate has risen for the first time in five months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 3.4% in December 2025, up from 3.2% in November, driven primarily by higher tobacco taxes and rising airfare prices. This increase is expected to be temporary as the government plans measures to alleviate price pressures in the spring [1][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The CPI increase in December 2025 marks the first rise since July 2025, with the increase attributed mainly to a 3% rise in tobacco prices due to delayed tax adjustments and a significant 28.6% rebound in airfare prices, which exceeded the previous month's decline and the year-on-year increase of 16.2% [8]. - Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation also saw a slight increase, rising to 4.5% year-on-year from 4.2%, driven by higher prices for bread and cereals [8]. - Rent and various entertainment and cultural expenses have exerted downward pressure on overall inflation, with prices for items like games and camping gear showing declines [8]. Economic Outlook - The Bank of England anticipates that inflation will approach its 2% target by spring, aided by measures in the upcoming budget that are expected to reduce price growth by about 0.5 percentage points [4]. - Despite the December inflation uptick, it is not expected to cause concern for the Bank of England, as the increase is seen as temporary and not driven by domestic price pressures [10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring labor market dynamics, with indications of a slowdown in wage growth and a stable unemployment rate of 5.1% [11]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the British pound experienced a slight decline but stabilized around 1.3440 USD, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this year remaining largely unchanged [4]. - Analysts predict that the next rate cut by the Bank of England will likely be the last in the current cycle, potentially occurring in the spring [10].