特朗普重返白宫一周年，交出何种“经济答卷”？

Group 1: Economic Performance and Indicators - The economic performance under President Trump shows a complex duality, with strong macro indicators like stock market performance and oil production, but low public sentiment regarding economic conditions [1][3] - Despite a strong rebound in economic growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with growth rates of 3.8% and 4.3% respectively, the overall annual growth rate is projected at 1.8% [3] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year as of December, while the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased from 2.5% to 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Labor Market - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped to 54.0 in January 2025, significantly lower than the previous year's level, reflecting a disconnect between economic data and consumer sentiment [4] - Although private sector wages increased by 1.4%, a survey indicated that 44% of voters felt their financial situation worsened over the past year, with 76% believing wage growth has not kept pace with inflation [4][6] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.4% between January and December 2025, with only 50,000 jobs added in December, far below expectations [6] Group 3: Wealth Distribution and Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index increased by 15.7% since Trump's inauguration, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq rising nearly 19.8%, highlighting a concentration of wealth among high-income earners [5] - The top 10% of income earners contributed approximately half of consumer spending, the highest proportion since 1989, indicating significant income inequality [5] - The dollar index fell from 108 to 98.6 due to concerns over tariff policies impacting economic growth, while the volatility in the ten-year Treasury yield reflects market uncertainties [6] Group 4: Political Implications and Public Perception - Recent polls show only 45% of voters approve of Trump's performance, with a growing perception that he is not prioritizing economic issues, which could pose political risks [8][9] - A majority of respondents believe Trump is focusing too much on foreign affairs at the expense of domestic economic concerns, with 53% feeling he is wasting energy on unnecessary overseas issues [9]