【2026.1.20】运力宽松局面改观 沿海煤炭运价底部反弹

Core Viewpoint - The maritime coal freight index has increased due to factors such as cold weather, pre-holiday replenishment expectations, and port sourcing costs, indicating a supportive pricing sentiment in the market [2][10]. Freight Index Summary - The OCFI comprehensive index rose to 727.33, up 6.20% from the previous period [1]. - The coastal line index increased to 747.70, reflecting a 6.84% rise [1]. - Specific port rates showed increases, with Shanghai's 2-3WD rate at 30.3, up 3.06% [1]. Market Analysis - The market is experiencing upward pressure on coal prices due to tight supply of imported coal and a shift in demand towards domestic procurement [2][10]. - The demand for shipping has increased as downstream replenishment needs have improved, supported by cold weather boosting electricity load [2][10]. - Port congestion and adverse weather conditions have restricted shipping capacity, leading to a tightening of immediate supply [2][10]. Port Congestion Situation - Tianjin Shenhua terminal has ships waiting for 3-5 days, while other ports like Nanjing and Huanghua have varying congestion levels, with Huanghua experiencing significant delays of 6-7 days [3][12]. Coal Inventory - The total coal inventory at four ports in the Bohai Rim is reported to be 17.376 million tons [6][15]. Power Plant Load Rates - Power plant load rates across various regions show fluctuations, with Shandong at 90% on January 9, 2026, indicating strong demand [9][18].