2023-2025年：票据利率中枢下移，波动收窄

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of new regulations in 2023 has led to a reduction in the maximum term of notes to 6 months, with a consistent downward trend in note interest rates observed over the years, particularly with a notable decrease in volatility expected in 2025 [1][11]. Group 1: 2023 Note Interest Rate Trends - The overall trend for note interest rates in 2023 was downward, peaking at 2.59% at the end of March and dropping to a low of 0.97% by the end of July, with an annual average of 1.64% [2][12]. - Monthly fluctuations were significant, with extreme market conditions occurring frequently at month-end [2][12]. Group 2: 2024 Note Interest Rate Trends - In 2024, the note interest rates continued to trend downward, reaching a high of 2.29% in early January and a low of 0.58% by the end of December, with an annual average of 1.30% [4][14]. - Compared to 2023, the volatility of interest rates in 2024 was reduced, although significant fluctuations still occurred at month-end [4][14]. Group 3: 2025 Note Interest Rate Trends - The trend for note interest rates in 2025 remained downward, starting the year at a high of 1.60% and dropping to a low of 0.20% by the end of October, with an annual average of 0.95% [5][15]. - The volatility of interest rates further decreased in 2025, with fewer occurrences of extreme fluctuations at month-end [5][15]. Group 4: Summary of Three-Year Trends - The average interest rate has been decreasing year by year, with the average for 2023 at 1.64%, 2024 at 1.30%, and 2025 at 0.95%, indicating a reduction of approximately 35 basis points each year [9][19]. - The number of extreme fluctuations (defined as movements over 20 basis points) decreased from 7 occurrences in both 2023 and 2024 to 4 occurrences in 2025, reflecting a significant reduction in volatility [10][20].