Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-21 10:24Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges, with major companies like Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. expected to report substantial losses for 2025, indicating a deepening crisis in the sector [1][17]. Industry Status - Major photovoltaic companies are experiencing severe losses, with Tongwei Co. projected to lose between 90 to 100 billion yuan and Longi Green Energy expected to lose between 60 to 65 billion yuan for 2025 [3][19]. - The overall industry is under pressure, with a notable divergence in performance across different segments; while the polysilicon segment has managed to achieve operational profitability, the battery and module segments are suffering from intensified losses due to low prices [3][19]. - The price structure within the industry is collapsing, with polysilicon prices dropping from a historical peak of 200,000 yuan per ton to around 52,000 yuan per ton, and module prices decreasing by 40% compared to 2023 [4][20]. - The industry is facing overcapacity issues, with low operating rates and a significant decline in the photovoltaic equipment industry index, which fell over 3% in December 2025 [5][21]. Causes of Losses - The core issue in the photovoltaic industry is a severe supply-demand mismatch, driven by irrational capacity expansion and a price war exacerbated by technological homogeneity [6][21]. - Rising raw material costs, particularly silver prices which surged nearly 150% in 2025, are further squeezing profit margins, with silver paste now constituting approximately 17% of the cost structure for photovoltaic components [8][22][23]. - Changes in the policy environment, including adjustments to export tax rebates and stricter capacity controls, are adding complexity to the industry's challenges [9][24]. Path to Resolution - The industry is beginning a difficult process of self-rescue and transformation, with government support aimed at curbing "involution" competition and encouraging capacity reduction [10][25]. - Leading companies are increasing R&D investments to develop higher-efficiency products, such as TOPCon and BC components, to differentiate themselves in the market [10][25]. - There is a push for capacity consolidation within the industry, with new platforms being established to facilitate this process [10][25]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a phase of consolidation and clearing in 2026, with ongoing policies aimed at reversing involution and gradually reshaping supply-demand dynamics [11][26]. - In the long term, the focus will shift from scale expansion to quality improvement, with leading companies likely to enhance their market share and profitability as weaker players exit the market [11][26].