金源灿:避险驱动黄金强势拉升 日内看多需兼顾超买风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the gold market reflects a "first dip then rise" strong pattern, driven primarily by a surge in risk aversion sentiment [1][5]. Market Performance - On January 21, gold opened at 4672.3 points, experienced a slight pullback to a low of 4659.2 points, but did not break through key support levels, which became a crucial point for bullish momentum [1][5]. - Following the release of risk aversion news, buying pressure surged, pushing gold prices to a high of 4766.8 points, marking a new short-term peak, and closing at 4763.6 points, indicating a bullish trend [1][5]. - The daily candlestick formed a long lower shadow, suggesting strong support around 4660 points, while the significant price increase highlighted the dominance of bullish sentiment in the market [1][5]. Macro Factors - The current gold price increase is attributed to multiple factors, including rising geopolitical risks and renewed expectations of global trade tensions, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6]. - A weakening U.S. dollar has also contributed to the relative attractiveness of gold priced in dollars, providing essential support for the price increase [2][6]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a clear upward channel, with the recent price surge reinforcing the medium-term upward trend; however, there are signs of overbought conditions that may lead to short-term corrections [2][6]. - The key support level for the day is identified at 4718 points, which aligns with the previous upward movement and serves as a strategic entry point for long positions [2][6]. Trading Strategy - A strategy is proposed to gradually build long positions near the 4718 points, with a stop-loss set below 4708 points to manage risk effectively [3][7]. - The first target for profit-taking is set at 4745 points, with a potential further target of 4752 points if the market breaks through the initial resistance [3][7]. - Caution is advised due to increased volatility in the high-range market, and traders should remain vigilant regarding ongoing risk aversion news and macroeconomic data that could impact market dynamics [3][7].