RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:比特币回撤背后的逻辑

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility, with Bitcoin erasing all gains since January 2026 and dropping below the $88,000 mark [1][2] - A total of $1.8 billion in liquidations occurred within 48 hours, with approximately 93% of positions being long, indicating a rapid reversal in market sentiment under extreme pressure [1][2] - The adjustment is attributed to a combination of macro geopolitical risks and a global liquidity turning point, prompting investors to reassess the short-term pricing logic of high-risk assets [1][2] Market Data - Bitcoin has declined approximately 10% from its yearly high and has fallen below the critical 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) [3] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has shrunk by $225 billion, currently standing at around $3.08 trillion [3] - The recent surge in Japan's 10-year government bond yields, which rose nearly 19 basis points in two days, reflects extreme anxiety regarding tightening liquidity [3] Investment Trends - The volatility in the Japanese bond market is seen as a deeper underlying cause of the current market conditions, with analysts suggesting that the situation resembles a "capital war" where funds are rapidly exiting traditional premium assets [4] - Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," is particularly sensitive to liquidity conditions, leading it to bear the brunt of selling pressure during tightening periods [4] - Investors are advised to remain cautious and closely monitor developments in Japanese bond yields and geopolitical policies to navigate potential ongoing market fluctuations [4]