RYOEX:日本债市对全球资产的冲击

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Japanese government bond yields signals a potential collapse of a long-standing liquidity pillar in global financial markets, posing significant valuation challenges for cryptocurrencies and global risk assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds spiked over 30 basis points to a historic high of 3.91%, leading to severe turbulence in global risk markets [3]. - Following this yield increase, the Nikkei index fell by 2.5%, and Bitcoin's price dropped below $91,000 before the U.S. stock market opened [3]. - The capital outflow is affecting not only traditional stock markets but also the highly liquidity-sensitive digital asset market [3]. Group 2: Structural Changes - The rise in Japanese yields is causing global capital, which has long relied on "yen carry trades," to flow back to Japan, resulting in a halt in international market liquidity [3]. - This situation represents a structural reshaping of financing costs, as the world's cheapest source of funds begins to dry up, leading to a necessary reevaluation of high-risk asset premiums [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - There are widespread concerns that the Bank of Japan is trapped in a policy dilemma, with the trend of global liquidity contraction being irreversible [4]. - Investors are warned to be vigilant about the potential concentration of systemic risks, as yields are expected to continue rising until a collapse occurs [4]. - RYOEX advises users to closely monitor the correlation between the yen exchange rate and bond market yields to find new asset allocation balances in a volatile macro environment [4].