六大独角兽，谁将登陆美股？腾讯也有布局

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. IPO market is experiencing pressure due to policy turmoil and government shutdowns, but a shift in market sentiment is expected in 2026, driven by the ongoing AI trend and the emergence of new potential IPO candidates beyond major players like SpaceX and OpenAI [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The IPO market's activity has been impacted by the "Liberation Day" tariff policy and government shutdowns, leading to a decline in investor confidence [1] - Predictions indicate that several tech, cryptocurrency, and fintech companies are likely to initiate IPOs in 2026 as market sentiment improves [1] Group 2: Notable Companies and Their IPO Probabilities - Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange, has an 83% probability of going public, having submitted its IPO application in November 2025 and raised $800 million in its latest funding round, increasing its valuation to $20 billion, a 33% rise from the previous valuation of $15 billion [2] - Cerebras Systems, an AI chip manufacturer, has a 77% IPO probability and plans to refile its IPO application in 2026 after previously withdrawing it due to investor scrutiny. The company has secured a significant contract with OpenAI worth over $10 billion, enhancing its pre-IPO financing prospects [3] - Databricks, a data and AI company, has a 70% IPO probability and completed over $4 billion in funding in December 2025, achieving a valuation of $134 billion [4] - Discord, a popular communication tool for gaming communities, has a 70% IPO probability, having submitted a confidential listing application while maintaining a valuation of approximately $15 billion after raising over $1.1 billion [5] - Plaid, which develops financial services APIs, has a 49% IPO probability, having previously been valued at $13.4 billion during its last funding round [6] - Anduril, focused on AI applications in the military sector, has a 46% IPO probability and was valued at $30.5 billion after its G round of funding in June 2025 [7]