高市早苗“禁忌减税”绊倒市场，日本恐难平息债市风暴

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's commitment to lower the consumption tax rate is causing significant turmoil in the bond market, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal management and investor confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The Japanese bond market is experiencing severe fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 18.5 basis points in just two days, reaching a 27-year high of 2.380% [1]. - The current situation is reminiscent of the "Truss shock" in the UK, where unbacked tax cuts led to a collapse in the bond market [2]. - Market sentiment is pessimistic, with local banks reporting minimal purchases of Japanese government bonds this year [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Japan's public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 230%, the highest among developed countries, raising alarms about financial stability [2]. - Approximately 60% of Japan's fiscal budget is allocated to social security and debt financing, with these expenditures expected to continue rising [4]. - Kishi's plan to suspend the 8% food consumption tax could result in an annual fiscal loss of 5 trillion yen, equivalent to Japan's entire education budget [4]. Group 3: Policy Tools and Challenges - Japan has limited policy tools available to address market volatility, with suggestions for bond buybacks or reducing new bond issuance being proposed [6]. - The Bank of Japan may adjust its bond purchase plans or initiate emergency buying operations, but such measures are seen as having limited effectiveness [6]. - Analysts believe that without a concrete funding plan or spending cuts, the turmoil in the Japanese bond market is unlikely to stabilize [6].