Fed to hold rates through March, and possibly through Powell's tenure, on strong growth: Reuters poll

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its key interest rate through the current quarter and possibly until Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, a shift from previous expectations of rate cuts by March [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to continue growing strongly, with a growth rate of 4.3% in the third quarter and an expected expansion of 2.3% this year, up from 2.2% last year [8]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, which argues against near-term rate cuts, although economists anticipate at least two reductions later in the year [2]. Federal Reserve Policy - A majority of economists (58%) expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% during the January meeting, contrasting with last month's expectations for at least one reduction [4]. - There is a divided outlook among Fed policymakers, with a slight majority (55 out of 100) expecting rate cuts to resume after Powell's term ends in May [6]. Political Influence - President Trump has criticized Powell for not lowering rates aggressively and has initiated criminal charges against him related to Fed headquarters renovations, which may impact the Fed's independence [3][7]. - The selection of the next Fed chair is anticipated to face significant pushback due to ongoing investigations, potentially affecting future interest rate decisions [7].