Michael Burry May Have Called 35 Of the Past 5 Recessions, But This Is Why He's Probably Right About This One

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, a notable market skeptic, has raised concerns about potential market bubbles, particularly in AI stocks, suggesting that the current economic environment may lead to a recession, unlike the easier monetary policies of the past [3][5][7]. Group 1: Michael Burry's Insights - Burry has accurately predicted economic downturns in the past, calling 15 of the last 3 recessions, which has led to skepticism about his current warnings [3][8]. - His recent posts are viewed as cautionary tales rather than definitive predictions, indicating a more cautious approach to public opinion [6][8]. - The current inflationary environment poses challenges that differ from previous economic cycles, complicating the ability to mitigate recessions through traditional monetary policy [7][10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The 2-10 Treasury spread has been inverted for an extended period, a historical indicator that precedes recessions, suggesting potential economic turmoil ahead [10]. - Elevated long-duration bond yields and increased annual interest payments for the U.S. government may necessitate significant market interventions, potentially leading to a recession rather than preventing one [10].