国际能源署上调石油需求增速预估强化多头情绪 国际油价延续回暖

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have shown a positive trend, driven by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) upward revision of global oil demand growth expectations for 2026, despite ongoing concerns about supply surplus in the oil market [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices rose over 1% during European trading on January 21, with WTI crude oil surpassing $60 per barrel and Brent crude oil exceeding $65 per barrel [1]. - Following the release of the IEA report, WTI and Brent crude oil prices briefly dipped but quickly rebounded, with price increases exceeding 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Outlook - The IEA revised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, indicating a slight reduction in the projected surplus from 3.84 million barrels per day to 3.69 million barrels per day [1]. - The IEA also projected that global oil supply would increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching an average of 108.7 million barrels per day, although this increase is lower than the 3 million barrels per day expected for 2025 [1]. Group 3: Market Influences - Recent positive news for the oil market includes temporary production halts at two major oil fields in Kazakhstan due to power distribution failures, which contributed to a rise in international oil prices [4]. - Additionally, a significant increase in U.S. natural gas prices, driven by cold weather forecasts and short covering, has provided further confidence to oil bulls [4]. - Despite the IEA's optimistic demand forecast, analysts caution that unless there are major supply disruptions, the oil market may face significant oversupply in the first quarter of 2026 due to refinery maintenance [4].