TACO策略失效？华尔街发现残酷现实：要让特朗普退缩，或需一次更大市场崩盘

Core Viewpoint - The TACO trading strategy has shown robust profitability on Wall Street for nearly nine months, but recent market events have raised concerns about its underlying paradox, particularly in light of President Trump's aggressive policy signals [1][3]. Group 1: TACO Trading Strategy - TACO stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," which emerged after Trump's initial global tariff policy was quickly retracted in April last year [1]. - The strategy has led investors to overlook extreme threats from the White House and continue purchasing high-risk assets [1]. - Recent market volatility has prompted discussions about the need for a significant market downturn to remind Trump of the potential consequences of his policies [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Indicators - The S&P 500 index dropped by 2.1% recently, with the VIX index reaching its highest level since November of the previous year, indicating increased market volatility [3][4]. - Despite the S&P 500 nearly doubling from its 2022 lows, market risk tolerance has significantly narrowed, with investor hedging positions at their lowest in years [4]. - The recent sell-off suggests that TACO's "immunity" may be weakening, as evidenced by the S&P 500 erasing all gains since 2026 [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Confidence - Some investors believe that the market's limited decline is due to confidence in the TACO strategy, as they have incorporated Trump's potential retreat into their responses to policy shocks [7]. - Foreign investors continue to hold U.S. credit assets despite political uncertainties, indicating a reluctance to abandon American assets [7]. - There is a prevailing belief that Trump will retreat from aggressive positions before significant market damage occurs, although some analysts caution that this assumption may be premature [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The current high market valuations may pose greater risks than those seen during the tariff-induced declines last year, with the S&P 500 near historical highs [8]. - Despite the recent spike in volatility, the premium investors are paying to hedge against significant declines remains only slightly elevated [8]. - Some strategists maintain that while Trump's demands are often aggressive, the outcomes typically fall between his demands and the status quo, impacting corporate earnings positively or negatively [8].