Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2026-01-21 14:44Core Viewpoint - The cyclical style represented by non-ferrous metals is becoming increasingly favored by fund managers, with significant increases in positions noted in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by macroeconomic recovery, global commodity cycles, and expectations of interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Actions - Numerous well-known fund managers have increased their positions in non-ferrous metal stocks during the fourth quarter of 2025, with notable investments in companies such as China Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Yunnan Aluminum [2]. - Fund managers like Ye Yong have maintained a strong focus on industrial and precious metals, continuing to increase holdings in gold and silver stocks, reflecting a bullish outlook on the sector [3]. - The West China Resource Fund has also reported significant purchases in non-ferrous stocks, indicating a strategic focus on metals like gold, silver, and copper [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Fund managers express strong confidence in the resilience of the resource price cycle, asserting that the current market is driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, suggesting that the price cycle is far from over [4]. - The expectation of a gradual recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in 2026 is anticipated to enhance profitability in cyclical industries, particularly in chemicals and electrolytic aluminum [5]. - The current phase is characterized as the third major global commodity cycle in 60 years, with resource prices still below historical highs, indicating a prolonged cycle driven by energy transitions and AI infrastructure [5]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning for 2026 - Fund managers have outlined a strategic roadmap for 2026, highlighting key commodities such as copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, and gold, while also identifying opportunities in cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel [6]. - The first tier of investment focus includes industrial non-ferrous metals and small metals, which are expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic environment and strong fundamentals [6]. - The second tier includes traditional cyclical industries such as chemicals and coal, which have seen significant declines in valuation but still maintain reasonable return on equity (ROE) levels, presenting investment opportunities [7].