数据缺乏“降息催化剂” 英镑走势受制于全球债市波动

Core Viewpoint - The British pound remains stable against the US dollar, trading around 1.3430, with recent UK wage and inflation data aligning with the Bank of England's policy stance, leading to limited market reaction [1] Economic Indicators - The UK industrial orders fell again in January, but the decline was the smallest since September of the previous year, with the CBI industrial orders balance improving from -32 to -30, although still below the long-term average of -14 [2] - Price expectations surged to their highest level in nearly three years, with the measure rising to +29, the highest since February 2023 [2] - Cost pressures, including rising wages, high energy prices, and increased taxes, are squeezing profit margins and affecting competitiveness, forcing companies to plan price increases despite weak demand [2] Market Sentiment - The market focus is on the potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in March, with a 30% probability priced in, but current data is not weak enough to significantly raise this probability [1] - The broader market sentiment is influenced by volatility in the global bond market, particularly due to a sell-off in Japanese government bonds, which has affected the UK bond market as well [1] - The euro has risen against the pound, surpassing 0.87, indicating that the pound is more sensitive to bond market fluctuations compared to the euro [1] Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD pair is supported near short-term moving averages, maintaining a bullish trend, but uncertainties in US and European politics and trade may lead to increased short-term volatility [2]