Xin Hua Cai Jing·2026-01-21 15:01Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that Asian currencies may remain "relatively stable or slightly stronger than the dollar" by 2026, supported by good foreign exchange reserves and optimistic macroeconomic conditions in the region [1] - Analysts note that there are no extreme imbalances in trade and fiscal policies, and Asian policymakers are unlikely to encourage significant appreciation of their currencies against the dollar due to ongoing geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Gold Demand and Market Trends - T. Rowe Price analysts highlight that central bank demand for gold remains strong and largely insensitive to price changes, providing "durable support" for gold as a strategic diversification tool [2] - The macro environment for gold remains favorable, with ongoing policy uncertainty and pressure on the dollar, benefiting gold as an asset outside the fiat currency system [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury and Market Dynamics - The "Sell America" trade is identified as a key driver behind recent market movements, as investors seek to reduce exposure to perceived risks associated with U.S. policies [2] - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields reached a peak of 4.313%, the highest since August of the previous year, with a closing yield of 4.287% [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields include the decline in Japanese bonds, tariff threats from Trump, and the momentum from breaking the critical 4.20% technical level [2] Group 4: Japanese Bond Market - Following significant sell-offs, Japan's 30-year bond yields fell by about 20 basis points to 3.71%, although they still increased by 22 basis points for the week [3] - Japanese policymakers are urged to respond quickly as market volatility shows no signs of easing, and recent price rebounds may not be sustainable [3] Group 5: UK Inflation and Economic Projections - The UK inflation rate for December 2025 rose to 3.4%, exceeding the expected 3.3%, while the Bank of England is set to make a decision on interest rates next month [3] - Despite sluggish economic growth, the UK maintains the highest inflation rate among G7 countries, although a significant slowdown in price increases is anticipated in the coming months [3] - Financial markets expect the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, each by 25 basis points [3]