Meritage Homes(US:MTH) ZACKS·2026-01-21 16:01Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Meritage Homes (MTH) due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Meritage is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.55 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 67.2% [3]. - Revenues are projected to be $1.51 billion, down 6.7% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 3.84% over the last 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment among analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Meritage is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -4.89% [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive or negative reading indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from consensus estimates, with positive readings being more predictive of earnings beats [9][10]. - Meritage's current Zacks Rank is 5 (Strong Sell), complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Meritage was expected to earn $1.71 per share but only achieved $1.39, resulting in a surprise of -18.71% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Meritage has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [14]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Building Products - Home Builders industry, NVR is expected to report earnings of $104.96 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 25% [18]. - NVR's revenue is projected to be $2.35 billion, down 15.4% from the previous year, with an Earnings ESP of +8.98% despite a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [19][20].