Can HCA Q4 Earnings Withstand Higher Costs & Lower Outpatient Cases?

Core Viewpoint - HCA Healthcare, Inc. is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, 2026, with earnings estimated at $7.37 per share and revenues of $19.68 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 18.5% and 7.6% respectively [1][2][6] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HCA Healthcare's total revenues for 2025 is $75.77 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.3% [3] - The consensus estimate for 2025 EPS is $27.60, indicating a 25.7% year-over-year growth [3] Recent Performance - HCA Healthcare has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 12.4% [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model indicates uncertainty regarding an earnings beat for HCA Healthcare, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Q4 Performance Drivers - Expected Q4 EPS of $7.37 and revenues of $19.68 billion suggest growth driven by higher admissions, occupancy gains, and increased revenue per admission [6] - The consensus estimate for equivalent admissions shows a 3.4% year-over-year growth, while revenue per equivalent admission is expected to rise by 3.9% [7] - Occupancy is projected at 73.1%, up from 71.7% a year ago, but the average length of stay is expected to decline by 2.6% [7] Cost Pressures - Total operating expenses are anticipated to increase by 7.1% year-over-year, primarily due to higher salaries, benefits, and supply costs [9] - Supply costs are expected to rise by more than 7%, and outpatient surgery cases are projected to fall by 0.9% from the previous year [9]