Nvidia, Broadcom, Marvell Poised To Benefit From AI-Driven Semiconductor Upswing, JPMorgan Says

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment sector is entering the fourth quarter of 2025 with AI-driven demand and improving cyclical trends, which are expected to support fundamentals into 2026 [1]. Earnings Season Setup - Companies are anticipated to report fourth-quarter results that align with or slightly exceed expectations, accompanied by positive commentary regarding the first quarter and full-year 2026, extending the positive earnings revision cycle seen in recent quarters [2]. - Over 70% of the semiconductor and semicap companies covered reported positive revisions in the third quarter of 2025, indicating strong momentum [2]. AI Infrastructure Demand - Sustained AI-led infrastructure spending is driving demand, with rapidly increasing inference demand and compute intensity across AI workloads [4]. - The 2026 supply chain appears heavily booked, particularly for leading-edge foundry capacity and memory and storage, providing visibility for key suppliers [4]. Stock Picks and Market Outlook - The AI accelerator opportunity is projected to reach approximately $200 billion in 2025, with AI spending expected to extend beyond compute into memory, storage, networking, and connectivity [5]. - Cyclical demand signals are improving and appear more synchronized, with lean inventories potentially driving above-seasonal growth for analog and broad-based companies [5]. Revenue Growth Expectations - The semiconductor industry is expected to see revenue growth exceeding 15% this year, with wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) growth projected at about 12% to 15% year-over-year [6]. - Rising memory prices may negatively impact second-half demand, particularly in PCs and smartphones [6]. Top Stock Picks - Key stock picks include Broadcom Inc, Marvell Technology Inc, Nvidia Corp, Analog Devices Inc, and Micron Technology Inc, all linked to AI and accelerated compute spending [7]. - KLA Corp is highlighted as the top semicap pick, supported by Applied Materials Inc and Lam Research Corp [7]. - In EDA and IP, Synopsys Inc is noted as a top pick due to rising chip complexity, with MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings and Astera Labs also mentioned for small-cap exposure to infrastructure and AI/datacenter spending [8]. Additional Preferences - Additional preferences include Cadence Design Systems, Western Digital Corp, and Astera Labs, as industrial and auto cyclicals are expected to drive faster positive revenue and EPS revisions due to improving demand from lean inventory levels [9].