Apple vs HP: Who Gains as AI PCs Rise and Memory Costs Surge?

Core Insights - The personal computer market is expected to face rising DRAM and NAND/SSD prices due to supply shortages driven by AI data center demand, leading to increased selling prices by PC vendors in 2026 [2] - Apple is well-positioned with its Mac business benefiting from the new macOS Tahoe 26 and M5 chip, which enhances performance and user experience [3][4] - HP is experiencing strong early adoption of AI-enabled PCs, but faces challenges with declining PC unit volumes and rising memory costs impacting earnings in 2026 [7][8] Apple Insights - Apple's Mac business is gaining market share, with a 9% share in 2025, up 30 basis points year-over-year, and shipments growing 11.1% to 25.6 million [5] - The M5 chip, built on 3 nm technology, offers significant performance improvements, including over four times the peak GPU compute performance of the previous M4 chip [4] - Apple's diversified manufacturing base, including operations in India and Vietnam, is expected to help manage supply chain challenges in 2026 [6] HP Insights - HP's AI PCs accounted for over 30% of total shipments in Q4 2025, with expectations to rise to 40-50% in fiscal 2026, leading to higher average selling prices [7] - Despite the growth in AI PCs, HP anticipates a decline in overall PC unit volumes in fiscal 2026, with only slight revenue growth expected from higher specifications [8] - HP's market share was 20.2% in 2025, with shipments growing 8.4% year-over-year to 57.5 million [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HP's fiscal 2026 earnings is $3.00 per share, reflecting a 4% decrease from fiscal 2025 [11] - In contrast, the consensus for Apple's fiscal 2026 earnings has increased to $8.13 per share, indicating a 9% growth over fiscal 2025 [12] Stock Performance and Valuation - Over the past 12 months, Apple shares have appreciated by 10.3%, while HP shares have dropped by 40.2% [13] - HP shares are considered cheaper with a Value Score of A, trading at 0.33X forward price/sales, compared to Apple's 7.83X, which has a Value Score of F [16] Conclusion - Apple's strong Mac portfolio and technological advancements position it favorably in the PC market, while HP faces challenges from memory shortages and declining demand [19]