黄金大涨,冲击4900美元关口!什么情况?

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of long-term supportive factors such as central bank purchases and strong investment demand, alongside short-term boosts from heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On January 21, 2026, spot gold prices reached a new high of $4888.43 per ounce, with COMEX gold prices hitting $4891.1 per ounce, marking a nearly 13% increase since the beginning of the year [1]. - Domestic gold futures saw the Shanghai gold main contract exceed 1100 yuan per gram for the first time, reaching 1101.92 yuan per gram [1]. - Major domestic gold jewelry brands reported prices nearing 1500 yuan per gram, with notable increases in daily prices, such as Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1495 yuan per gram, up 41 yuan, and Lao Feng Xiang at 1498 yuan per gram, up 42 yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Sentiment - The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, saw its holdings rise to 1085.67 tons as of January 16, 2026, a 24.9% year-on-year increase [2]. - Silver ETF holdings also increased, reaching 16,200 tons on January 20, 2026, a 12.4% year-on-year growth [2]. - COMEX silver inventories continued to decline, dropping to 14,100 tons, a 19.8% decrease from last year's peak, indicating strong demand from both financial institutions and physical buyers [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The core driver of the current market rally is the deteriorating relationship between the US and Europe, with increased tariffs and geopolitical tensions prompting investors to seek gold as a safe haven [3]. - Concerns over the safety of dollar assets among European investors have led to increased demand for gold as a substitute, particularly as some European funds plan to exit US Treasury markets [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to support gold's appeal as a hedge against risk [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upward trend in precious metal prices is expected to persist due to ongoing geopolitical crises, global liquidity easing, and the financial attributes of precious metals [4]. - Despite potential interventions from exchanges that may slow the pace of price increases, the overall upward trend is likely to remain intact [4]. - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated due to risk events, with significant adjustments expected following periods of heightened geopolitical tensions [4].