新发展模式支撑中国经济行稳致远

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of transitioning to an economic development model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth, as a strategic response to changing domestic and international conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Importance and Urgency - The need for a new economic development model is underscored by the increasing uncertainties in the international landscape and the internal challenges of insufficient effective demand [2][3]. - The shift towards a domestic demand-driven model is seen as essential for maintaining economic vitality and competitiveness in the face of external risks [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Response to External Risks - The article highlights the global economic slowdown and rising protectionism, which necessitate a reduced reliance on external demand [3]. - China's large domestic market, with over 1.4 billion people, presents significant potential for internal demand, which can mitigate external uncertainties [3]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - Transitioning to a consumption-driven economy is crucial for high-quality development, moving from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth [4]. - The article notes that as China’s GDP per capita surpasses $13,000, the demand structure is evolving, necessitating investments in human capital and services [4]. Group 4: Economic Cycle and Supply-Demand Balance - The article stresses the importance of a dynamic balance between supply and demand, with a focus on addressing the current shortfall in domestic consumption [5]. - A new economic model should facilitate a higher-level dynamic balance where demand drives supply and vice versa [5]. Group 5: Characteristics of Domestic Demand-Driven Growth - The article outlines that a shift to domestic demand is a common trend for large economies, particularly after reaching a certain GDP per capita threshold [6][7]. - From 2013 to 2024, domestic demand is projected to contribute an average of 93.1% to economic growth, highlighting its increasing importance [7]. Group 6: Consumption as a Growth Driver - The article discusses the U-shaped trend of consumption rates in economic development, indicating that as economies mature, consumption becomes a more significant growth driver [8]. - From 2013 to 2024, final consumption expenditure is expected to contribute an average of 55% to economic growth, surpassing the contribution from capital formation [8]. Group 7: Endogenous Growth as a Pathway - The article posits that sustainable economic growth relies on internal dynamics rather than external forces, with innovation playing a key role in this process [9]. - By 2024, R&D investment intensity in China is projected to reach 2.68%, surpassing the EU average, which supports the shift towards endogenous growth [9]. Group 8: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that effective investment strategies should combine physical and human capital investments to stimulate economic growth [11]. - It emphasizes the need for policies that enhance consumer confidence and spending, alongside structural reforms to support innovation and investment [12][14].