华泰证券：预计黄磷景气有望上行 下游磷酸等亦或受带动

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates a positive outlook for yellow phosphorus demand driven by the growth in downstream phosphoric acid, terminal new energy cathode materials, electronic-grade phosphoric acid, and fine phosphate demand [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Yellow phosphorus demand is expected to improve due to increased demand from downstream applications [1] - The cost competitiveness of thermal phosphoric acid over wet phosphoric acid is becoming more pronounced due to high prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid, which may further boost the demand for thermal process phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus [1] - On the supply side, domestic production of yellow phosphorus is strictly controlled due to high energy consumption and environmental safety regulations, with only slight increases in capacity through capacity replacement [1] - Under the dual carbon policy, existing high-energy-consuming capacities may face pressure to exit the market, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance for yellow phosphorus [1] Industry Outlook - The expected improvement in yellow phosphorus market conditions may also positively influence the phosphoric acid market [1] - Companies with yellow phosphorus production capacity reserves and integrated leaders in the phosphate-yellow phosphorus-phosphoric acid value chain are likely to benefit from these trends [1]