开年价格战重现：汽车公司从最难的第一季度开始更难的一年

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is facing a significant shift in 2026, with predictions of a price war initiated earlier than expected, influenced by changes in subsidy policies and market dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) forecasts that domestic car sales in Q1 2026 may remain flat year-on-year but could drop by 25% compared to Q4 2025, with overall annual sales expected to show zero or minimal growth [2]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a substantial decline in Q1 2026 sales by 30%-35% due to reduced purchase tax subsidies, with an annual decrease of 5% anticipated, potentially reaching 7% without considering export sales [2]. - UBS shares a similar outlook, projecting a 2% decline in annual car sales, with export growth slowing from 28% in 2025 to 15% [3]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have yet to announce the continuation of "two new" subsidies for 2026, with significant changes expected in the subsidy structure for new energy vehicles (NEVs) [3]. - The new policy will halve the purchase tax for NEVs, increasing costs for consumers, while the subsidy for new cars will be more detailed and based on vehicle price, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan [3]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment - Industry executives express cautious optimism regarding their companies' growth, with many expecting double-digit growth driven by overseas market expansion, despite a general conservative outlook on overall market growth [7]. - The total sales target for nine major automakers in 2026 is set at 18.339 million units, surpassing the actual sales of 3.86 million units in 2025 [7]. - New energy vehicle manufacturers have aggressive growth targets, with some aiming for increases of 70%-121%, while traditional automakers maintain more conservative targets [9]. Group 4: Price War Dynamics - A price war has already begun, with companies like BMW and Tesla implementing significant price cuts and financing options to stimulate demand ahead of the anticipated subsidy changes [10][13]. - Over 20 automakers have introduced purchase tax guarantees to attract customers, but initial sales data for January 2026 indicate a decline in demand compared to previous months [10][11]. - The adjustment of subsidy policies has raised the entry barriers for consumers, particularly affecting lower-priced vehicles, which may suppress demand in that segment [11]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the high-end market is expected to intensify, with new energy vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan becoming more competitive due to favorable subsidy policies [13]. - Companies like NIO, Xiaomi, and Xpeng are preparing to launch multiple new models in 2026, indicating a strategic focus on high-end segments [13].