中信证券：美股市场短期波动率或将提升 上行动力仍将延续

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical demands of the U.S. regarding Greenland are being linked to trade barriers against eight European countries, which may lead to economic pressures prompting some countries to compromise with the U.S. if tariffs are implemented [1] Group 1: U.S. Government Actions - The U.S. government is threatening tariffs on eight European countries, which could impact their economies significantly due to their reliance on exports [1] - Denmark's pension fund plans to sell its U.S. Treasury holdings, amounting to approximately $100 million, but this is not expected to trigger systemic selling in other regions [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - U.S. stock valuations have significantly contracted compared to their peak levels in 2025, with a downward adjustment in valuation centers and continuous upward revisions in profit expectations [1] - Non-U.S. developed market equities are unlikely to offer better value compared to U.S. stocks based on various valuation metrics, including ROE [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in the U.S. stock market is expected to increase, with profit-taking pressures in the technology sector and downward pressure on the retail sector due to escalating trade tensions [1] - In the medium to long term, the expectation of fiscal and monetary easing in the U.S. during an election year suggests continued upward momentum for U.S. stocks, with a focus on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, resource products, energy infrastructure (nuclear power), military, internet healthcare diagnostics, and finance (banks) [1]