郭春丽：新发展模式支撑中国经济行稳致远

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of transitioning to an economic development model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and endogenous growth, as a strategic response to changing domestic and international conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Importance and Urgency - The need for a domestic demand-driven economic model is underscored by the increasing uncertainties in the global landscape and the inadequacies in domestic demand, which are seen as major constraints on economic growth [2][3]. - The shift towards a domestic demand-led model is viewed as essential for maintaining economic vitality and competitiveness in the face of external risks [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Response to External Challenges - The article outlines that the global economic environment is facing significant challenges, including reduced growth momentum and rising protectionism, which necessitate a shift away from reliance on external demand [3]. - China's large domestic market, with over 1.4 billion people, presents a unique opportunity to leverage internal demand to counteract external uncertainties [3]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - Transitioning to a model driven by domestic demand is linked to the need for high-quality development, moving from factor-driven growth to innovation-driven growth [4]. - The article highlights the importance of adapting to changes in demand structure and investing in human capital to enhance economic quality [4]. Group 4: Economic Cycle and Supply-Demand Balance - A dynamic balance between supply and demand is crucial for the national economic cycle, with the current mismatch between strong supply and weak demand being a significant issue [5]. - The new economic model aims to align supply with demand more effectively, fostering a higher-level dynamic balance that promotes mutual reinforcement between supply and demand [5]. Group 5: Characteristics of Economic Development - The article notes that the transition to a domestic demand-driven model is a common trend in large economies, particularly after reaching a certain GDP per capita threshold [6][7]. - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth is highlighted, with projections indicating that it will account for an average of 93.1% of economic growth from 2013 to 2024 [7]. Group 6: Consumption as a Growth Driver - Consumption is identified as a critical component of domestic demand, with its role in economic development expected to increase as GDP per capita rises [8]. - The article cites that from 2013 to 2024, final consumption expenditure is projected to contribute an average of 55% to economic growth, surpassing the contribution from capital formation [8]. Group 7: Endogenous Growth - The article emphasizes that sustainable economic growth in large economies relies on endogenous factors, such as innovation and productivity improvements, rather than external forces [9]. - It highlights the importance of enhancing innovation capabilities, with R&D investment expected to reach 2.68% of GDP by 2024, surpassing the EU average [9]. Group 8: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests that a comprehensive approach is needed to enhance economic vitality, balancing supply and demand while fostering effective investment [10][11]. - It advocates for policies that stimulate consumption and improve public services to create a favorable environment for consumer spending [12][13]. - The integration of technological innovation and reform is seen as essential for driving endogenous growth and adapting to new economic conditions [14].