智通财经网·2026-01-22 01:11Core Viewpoint - Current valuation levels of the US stock market have significantly converged compared to the extreme levels expected in 2025, with downward adjustments in valuation centers and continuous upward revisions in earnings expectations [1] Group 1: Market Valuation and Earnings Expectations - Since early January, earnings expectations for US stocks in 2026 have been continuously revised upward, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 expected earnings growth rates at 13.7% and 12.9% respectively [5] - As of January 17, the P/E ratios for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are 22.1X, 25.0X, and 21.8X, indicating a narrowing of valuation levels compared to their historical highs [6] - The current return on equity (ROE) for the US stock market remains at 20%, higher than other developed markets, indicating limited alternatives for investment in global developed markets [7] Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Market Trends - Short-term volatility in the US stock market may increase due to profit-taking pressures in the technology sector and downward pressure on the retail sector from escalating trade tensions [8] - In the medium to long term, the combination of fiscal and monetary easing in the US is expected to sustain upward momentum in the stock market, with recommended focus areas including technology, manufacturing, energy infrastructure, military, and internet healthcare diagnostics [8] Group 3: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The US government's linkage of Greenland's geopolitical claims to trade barriers has raised concerns about trade risks, with a proposed 10% tariff on goods from eight European countries, potentially increasing to 25% [2] - The economic structure of the eight European countries heavily relies on exports, which may lead to significant asymmetric impacts if trade barriers are implemented, potentially forcing some countries to compromise with the US [3] - The Danish pension fund's decision to sell its US Treasury holdings, although limited in scale, reflects growing concerns over credit risks associated with US policies, but is not expected to trigger significant liquidity risks in the US Treasury market [4]