中金：电解铝选股建议重点关注三条标准 予中国宏桥(01378)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价升至42.79港元

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests focusing on three key stock selection criteria in the electrolytic aluminum industry: companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios and significant earnings elasticity from rising aluminum prices, those with strong overseas expansion capabilities, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates amid potential production shutdowns and policy changes [1] Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - Companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios will benefit more from rising aluminum prices [1] - Firms with overseas expansion capabilities are expected to show stronger growth [1] - Companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates are preferred, especially as alumina prices have reached a low point [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - China Hongqiao (01378) is rated "outperform" with a target price raised from 29.29 HKD to 42.79 HKD [1] - Other recommended stocks include Nanshan Aluminum International H shares (02610, target price 77.76 HKD), Nanshan Aluminum A shares (600219.SH, target price 7.25 RMB), China Aluminum (02600, target price 17.04 HKD), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ, target price 22.67 RMB), and Huatong Cable, all rated "outperform" [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017 [2] - Companies like China Hongqiao are establishing a presence in low-cost regions, particularly in Indonesia [2] - Guinea's bauxite mining is becoming increasingly active, with projections of 170 million tons by 2025, and China Hongqiao expected to be the largest producer in Guinea [2] Group 4: Price and Cost Dynamics - The aluminum price increase benefits all electrolytic aluminum companies, with those having a high capacity-to-market value ratio showing greater valuation elasticity [3] - Companies with alumina self-sufficiency above 100% will see increased profits from alumina sales as prices rise [3] - Companies with high self-generated electricity ratios, like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum, will benefit more from falling coal prices compared to those with lower ratios [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The industry anticipates a significant revaluation opportunity due to rising aluminum prices and expanding profit margins per ton of aluminum [5] - The supply-demand gap in electrolytic aluminum is expected to widen, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies globally [5] - The average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is projected to remain around 10 times, indicating substantial upward revaluation potential [5]