Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2026-01-22 02:39Core Viewpoint - The new energy commercial vehicle market in China is expected to experience significant growth in 2025, with sales projected to reach 954,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.5%, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth in the industry [1][2]. Market Penetration - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles has consistently exceeded 30% for four consecutive months, marking a new phase of large-scale application [1][2]. - In 2025, domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles are expected to reach 871,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 63.7%, accounting for 26.9% of total commercial vehicle sales [2][3]. Sales and Orders - The cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2025 are projected to reach 231,100 units, a substantial increase of 182% year-on-year, with December alone achieving a record monthly sales of 45,300 units [3]. - Significant orders have been reported, including a strategic cooperation agreement between China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Bashu Logistics for 1,000 heavy trucks, with the first batch of 200 units to be delivered [4]. Future Market Potential - The overall commercial vehicle market in China is expected to reach 4.25 million units in 2026, with a projected penetration rate for new energy vehicles exceeding 35% [5]. - By 2030, the penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks is anticipated to surpass 50%, with a market size exceeding 450,000 units [5]. Transition to Market-Driven Growth - The industry is moving away from reliance on subsidies, with customers increasingly focusing on product performance and total lifecycle costs [6]. - The decline in battery prices and the adoption of vehicle-to-grid models are making new energy commercial vehicles more affordable [7]. Technological Advancements - The energy density of power batteries has improved, allowing for enhanced range without increasing vehicle weight, with battery capacities primarily in the 400 kWh to 600 kWh range [7]. - The introduction of ultra-fast charging solutions and extensive charging networks is addressing user pain points and facilitating the large-scale deployment of new energy commercial vehicles [8]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the commercial vehicle sector is evolving, with a focus on smart technology that can deliver economic benefits and reduce marginal costs [9]. - Major manufacturers are investing in intelligent vehicle technologies, with several companies launching models equipped with advanced driver-assistance systems [9]. International Expansion - Overseas markets are viewed as critical growth areas, with companies like Foton aiming for 200,000 units in overseas sales by 2026, and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group targeting 300,000 units by 2030 [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in international markets remains low, presenting opportunities for early movers [11]. Ecosystem Development - The competition in the commercial vehicle industry is shifting from product-centric to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, focusing on long-term value creation for customers [11].