从“两头多”到“中间强”：结构优化如何影响鸡蛋价格？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese egg industry is entering a structural adjustment phase due to a shift from profit to loss in 2025, with an expected price pressure on egg prices in early 2026 due to an oversupply of medium and large eggs [2][10]. Group 1: Egg Size Distribution - The proportion of egg sizes is transitioning from a "two extremes" model to a "strong middle" model, with large eggs showing a "V" shaped fluctuation in their market share [2][10]. - The share of large eggs initially increased due to low temperatures and an abundance of older hens, but decreased later in the year due to poor profitability and accelerated culling [2][10]. - The share of small eggs increased in the first half of the year but decreased in the second half due to reduced stocking caused by industry losses, leading to a trend of supply contraction [2][10]. - The share of medium eggs is gradually increasing, becoming a stable source in the market as supply advantages become more pronounced [2][10]. Group 2: Age Structure of Laying Hens - The age structure of laying hens is optimizing, with a focus on reducing the extremes and stabilizing the middle, as the proportion of main egg-laying hens aged 120-450 days is expected to increase [4][12]. - The proportion of younger hens (under 120 days) is shrinking, reflecting a lack of confidence in restocking due to ongoing industry losses [4][12]. - The proportion of older hens (over 450 days) initially increased but is expected to decline as culling accelerates under financial pressure, reducing inefficient production capacity [4][12]. Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The ongoing shortage of replacement hens will limit the number of new laying hens in the first half of 2026, tightening the supply of small eggs [6][14]. - The main flock will remain at a high level, ensuring a stable supply of medium eggs, while cost pressures will continue to drive the culling of older hens, limiting the market share of large eggs [6][14]. - The market is expected to see a pricing structure where large and medium eggs dominate, while small eggs will provide limited support due to tight supply [6][14]. - The average price of eggs in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to fluctuate between 2.80-3.30 yuan per jin, with the industry likely to remain in a state of micro-profit or break-even [6][14].