瑞士法郎政策维稳避险博弈

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing a "strong oscillation with limited dual-direction movement" due to a combination of global central bank policy divergence, geopolitical risk fluctuations, and trade pattern adjustments, reflecting its status as a pure safe-haven currency [1] Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the USD/CHF exchange rate is at 0.7953, ending a three-day decline, with a trading range of 0.7900-0.8020 [1] - The EUR/CHF exchange rate is hovering around 0.9350, showing significant resistance without a clear breakout direction [1] - The CHF has appreciated slightly against the USD and stabilized against the EUR, driven by the "loose US, stable Swiss" policy interest rate differential and temporary inflows of safe-haven funds [1] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The SNB maintains a policy interest rate of 0%, which is low compared to other major central banks, with no immediate plans for adjustment [2] - SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasized that the threshold for restoring negative interest rates is very high, even in the event of negative inflation [2] - The zero interest rate policy aims to prevent excessive appreciation of the CHF, alleviating pressure on key export sectors such as watchmaking and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's macroeconomic accounts provide a long-term fundamental "moat" for the CHF, with a current account surplus consistently above 4% of GDP and a net international investment position exceeding 100% of GDP [3] - Despite a temporary trade deficit due to high US tariffs, a trade agreement has led to a rapid recovery, particularly in gold exports, which surged from 0.3 tons in August to 128.2 tons in October [3] - The CHF's safe-haven status remains attractive to global investors, supported by Switzerland's political neutrality, low government debt (approximately 40%), and substantial net overseas assets [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions predict a "strong oscillation with narrowed volatility" for the CHF in 2026, with key divergences centered on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk developments [4] - Valion Bank forecasts the USD/CHF exchange rate to fluctuate between 0.79 and 0.81 throughout the year, while UBS suggests limited further weakening of the USD [4] - Traders Union's statistical model indicates that if the current market conditions persist, the USD/CHF rate could drop to around 0.778 by year-end and potentially further to approximately 0.6515 by 2030 [4]