澳元区间博弈待突破 加息预期信号主导方向

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar (USD), with significant influences from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy and economic indicators, leading to a critical point for directional movement in the currency market [1][2][3] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The RBA has ended its easing cycle after three rate cuts in 2025, with expectations shifting towards potential interest rate hikes due to persistent inflation above the target range of 2%-3% [1] - There is a notable divergence in forecasts regarding future rate adjustments, with some institutions predicting a 25 basis point hike in February, while others suggest maintaining current rates due to concerns over consumer confidence [1][2] - The interest rate swap market indicates a 25% probability of a rate hike in February, increasing to 76% by May, with an overall expectation of a 30 basis point increase throughout 2026 [2] Economic Performance - Australia's economy shows resilience, with household spending increasing by 1.0% month-on-month in November 2025, and an annual growth rate of 6.3%, the highest since September 2023 [2] - The labor market remains robust, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% in October and a significant increase in full-time employment [2] Consumer Confidence and Cost Pressures - Consumer confidence is declining, with the Westpac consumer confidence index falling by 1.7% to 92.9 in January 2026, indicating a pessimistic outlook on future economic conditions [3] - Rising living costs, including a 5.2% increase in housing costs and a 19.7% rise in electricity prices, are contributing to the pressure on consumer sentiment [3] Currency Dynamics and External Influences - The AUD's performance is significantly affected by global risk sentiment and international demand, with a notable recovery in international tourism contributing positively to the economy [3] - Despite the AUD showing resilience against the USD, external factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical issues may exert downward pressure on the currency [3] Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD exchange rate is currently oscillating around the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating low volatility and potential for a directional breakout [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6760-0.6799, while support is concentrated in the 0.6660-0.6690 range, with a potential downward trend if key support is breached [4]