加元政策油价贸易三重博弈

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a slight appreciation against the US dollar (USD), influenced by monetary policy divergence, oil price fluctuations, and trade agreement uncertainties, with short-term trends remaining unclear and medium-term appreciation potential constrained [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of January 22, 2026, the CAD/USD exchange rate is 0.7235, showing a minor increase of 0.0796% from the previous trading day [1]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate has fluctuated from 1.3724 at the beginning of the year to a high of 1.3908, currently stabilizing in the 1.38-1.39 range [1]. - The exchange rate has shown a strong support level above 1.3800, with significant resistance around 1.3900-1.3920 [1][2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 100 basis points to 2.25% in 2025 and signaled a pause in rate cuts, with expectations to maintain the rate in 2026 [2]. - The Federal Reserve has reduced rates by 75 basis points, with market expectations for two more rate cuts before September 2026, creating a "looser US, stable Canada" policy environment [3]. - There is a divergence in long-term policy outlooks among institutions, with some predicting no changes while others foresee potential rate hikes by the Bank of Canada [3]. Group 3: Oil Price Impact - The CAD is closely tied to oil prices, with current weak oil prices being a significant factor suppressing the CAD [3]. - WTI crude oil prices are around $59.30, with concerns over US and European trade affecting global energy consumption and, consequently, the CAD [3]. - Long-term factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical risks may support oil prices, potentially benefiting the CAD [3]. Group 4: Trade Relations and Economic Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA review in summer 2026 pose risks to the CAD, as changes in trade agreements could impact Canadian exports and the economy [4]. - Canadian exports have been negatively affected by increased tariffs, with the average tariff rate rising to 5.9% by October 2025, leading to a contraction in export growth [4]. - The Canadian economy shows resilience in consumer spending and labor market improvements, but challenges remain, including weak business investment and stagnant population growth [4]. Group 5: Long-term Forecasts - Institutions generally predict limited appreciation potential for the CAD, with forecasts suggesting a gradual strengthening to around 1.35 (CAD/USD 0.7407) in 2026, primarily in the first half of the year [5]. - Morgan Stanley indicates that adjustments in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace will reinforce the USD's relative strength, limiting the CAD's appreciation potential [5].