光大期货：1月22日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - The average sugarcane yield in Brazil's central-south region for December 2025 is projected to be 73.4 tons per hectare, an increase of 26.6% compared to 58 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024 [2] - The cumulative yield for the 2025/26 crushing season (April to December) is expected to be 74.7 tons per hectare, down 4.6% from 78.3 tons per hectare in the previous season [2] - Spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5270 to 5360 yuan per ton, down by 10 to 20 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, prices are between 5120 and 5160 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan per ton [2][6] - The raw sugar market continues to show a fluctuating pattern, with domestic spot prices declining and transaction volumes decreasing, leading to a sustained accumulation of inventory [2][6] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.06% to 64.3 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 0.17% to 14535 yuan per ton, with a decrease in open interest by 908 contracts to 787200 contracts [3][7] - The cotton 3128B spot price index is at 15445 yuan per ton, an increase of 55 yuan per ton from the previous day [3][7] - The market is currently focused on supply dynamics, pre-holiday downstream stocking demand, and operational conditions, with expectations of increased cotton production and imports [3][7] - Textile companies have been replenishing raw material inventories, but the motivation for significant restocking before the holiday is weak, with available days of textile raw material inventory at approximately 32 days [3][7] - As the Spring Festival approaches, operational rates are expected to gradually decline, and the current fundamentals may not support a sustained rise in cotton prices, although future policy developments remain promising [3][7]