今日猪价走势：全国震荡偏弱，供需博弈进入关键期

Core Viewpoint - The national pig market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with regional price disparities and a general decline in prices observed recently [2][17][19]. Price Dynamics - The average national pig price has decreased to approximately 6.55 yuan per jin (about 13.10 yuan per kilogram), reflecting a slight drop of 0.03 yuan per jin compared to the previous day [2][4][19]. - Northern regions are seeing a price decline due to increased market supply following the end of snow, while southern markets remain relatively stable [5][20]. - In the Northeast, pig prices are weak, with mainstream prices ranging from 6.3 to 6.45 yuan per jin, while Hebei's prices are stable at 6.5 to 6.7 yuan per jin [6][21][22]. - The southern market, particularly in Guangdong, maintains the highest price at 7.2 yuan per jin [8][23]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by ample stock but slow short-term outflow, with a total pig stock of 36.92 million heads as of December 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.23% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 5.69% [9][24]. - As of January 20, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises is only 64.94%, with significant regional differences, particularly in Jiangsu, where some farms are slowing down their slaughter pace [10][25]. Demand Side Changes and Slaughter Challenges - The pork consumption is entering a seasonal peak, but demand is complex, with northern regions experiencing low slaughter volumes due to previous snowfall [12][26]. - Southern consumption is weakening due to population return trends, leading to a decrease in sales concentration [12][26]. - Slaughter enterprises are facing operational pressures, with some reporting losses of 50-60 yuan per head, which is suppressing their operational capacity [12][26]. Future Market Outlook and Recommendations - With three weeks remaining until the Spring Festival, the market is entering a critical pre-holiday negotiation period [27]. - Short-term expectations suggest that pig prices may experience wide fluctuations and slight declines before the festival, with potential price increases around key dates like the Laba Festival [28]. - Mid-term projections indicate that the pig market will remain under pressure until a thorough capacity clearance occurs, with high supply levels expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [28]. - Notably, the price of weaned piglets has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching an average of 253.33 yuan per head, indicating a potential positive market outlook [28].