Seeking Alpha·2026-01-22 04:50Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter of 2025 experienced a sharp 5% sell-off followed by a quick recovery, with global stocks reaching all-time highs, influenced by concerns over a potential AI bubble and subsequent strong earnings from NVIDIA [4][5]. Portfolio Performance & Attribution - The Polen Global Growth Composite Portfolio returned -2.5% gross of fees and -2.7% net of fees in Q4 2025, underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index, which returned +3.3% [7]. - Top relative contributors included Eli Lilly, Alphabet, and Shopify, while Oracle, Paycom Software, and CoStar Group were the largest detractors [7][8]. - Eli Lilly's stock rallied over 40% in Q4 due to strong financial results and a favorable agreement on drug pricing, despite earlier concerns [8]. - Oracle's performance reversed from the previous quarter, primarily due to skepticism regarding its future revenue tied to OpenAI, impacting its stock negatively [9]. Portfolio Activity - New positions were initiated in Tencent Holdings and Spotify, while positions in Sage Group, Willis Towers Watson, ICON Plc, and Workday were eliminated to fund these investments [10][11]. - Tencent has shown consistent earnings growth of over 30% annually for the past three years, and its valuation is considered reasonable for sustainable revenue growth [11]. - Spotify is viewed as a leading streaming network with significant growth potential, expecting over 20% annual free cash flow growth for the next five years [12]. Outlook - The datacenter capital expenditure cycle is expected to continue, driven by increasing demand and supportive government policies, suggesting a favorable environment for growth in revenues and earnings for key players [17]. - The portfolio is positioned to deliver above-average earnings growth, with a focus on sectors outside of the AI and datacenter themes, ensuring resilience regardless of market drivers [18].