Ge Long Hui A P P·2026-01-22 05:43Core Viewpoint - The earnings forecast for China Shipbuilding Defense in 2025 is in line with expectations, projecting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 150%-197% [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The industry is experiencing an upturn in the cycle, with increased demand for various ship types leading to improved profitability for shipyards [1] - The demand side is driven by a replacement cycle and environmental policies, particularly for new orders of oil tankers and bulk carriers, while supply-side expansion from shipyards is limited [1] - Ship prices are expected to reach new highs due to the combination of strong demand and limited supply [1] Group 2: Company Position - The company is the only "A+H" platform under China Shipbuilding Group, which is expected to benefit from the group's efforts to resolve industry competition [1] - The controlling company, Huangpu Wenchong, and the associated company, Guangzhou Shipyard International, are core shipbuilding enterprises with a full order book [1] - As of January 21, 2026, the company holds an order backlog of 6.73 million deadweight tons and 338 CGT, indicating a robust order pipeline [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" based on the positive outlook and strong performance indicators [1]