Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 1074.22, with a slight decline of 0.09%, reaching a high of 1099.62 and a low of 1074.00 [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bearish [1] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that most economists expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% this quarter, reversing previous expectations of a rate cut before March [3] - The strong growth outlook for the U.S. economy and persistent inflation above the 2% target are the main reasons supporting this judgment [3] - 58% of economists surveyed expect no change in rates this quarter, with a consensus that the January FOMC meeting will result in no action [3] - Concerns about political interference are rising, with Trump criticizing Powell for not cutting rates effectively and potential criminal investigations into Powell's actions [3] Group 3 - The survey has raised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.3%, up from 2% last month, with an average of 2% expected by 2028 [4] - The chief economist at Oxford Economics is more optimistic, predicting a growth rate of 2.8% due to AI investments and tax cuts contributing 0.6 percentage points [4] - Inflation, as measured by PCE, is expected to remain above the 2% target this year and through 2028, with an average unemployment rate of 4.5% [4] Group 4 - As of January 22, 2026, the main gold futures contract has surpassed 1100 yuan/gram, creating a historical high and showing a high-level oscillation [5] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend in the short term, but caution is advised due to the RSI nearing the overbought zone [5] - Support is noted at 1090 yuan/gram, while resistance is observed at 1120 yuan/gram, with geopolitical tensions and global central bank gold purchases supporting the long-term trend [5]
美联储政策突传转向 沪金警示回调风险
Jin Tou Wang·2026-01-22 06:05