成本与原料的双重支撑下 合成橡胶期价强势上涨

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant price movements driven by supply-demand dynamics and cost factors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 22, the domestic futures market for synthetic rubber showed a significant increase, with the main contract opening at 11,935.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,215.0 CNY, marking a rise of 3.58% [1]. - The synthetic rubber market is currently characterized by a strong performance, with prices fluctuating upwards [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Huatai Futures, the supply-demand balance for polybutadiene rubber is stable, with high operating rates but limited room for further increases due to production losses [2]. - Downstream demand remains weak, leading to a cautious procurement attitude among buyers, while upstream prices for butadiene are expected to remain stable due to recent export boosts and high operating rates in downstream sectors [2]. Group 3: Cost and Price Drivers - Guoyuan Futures noted that the recent price surge in BR rubber futures is primarily driven by a rebound in international oil prices, supported by tight European spot markets and geopolitical tensions [3]. - The limited availability of butadiene resources in the domestic market has strengthened seller sentiment, contributing to cost support for BR rubber [3]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Xinhuh Futures maintains a bullish long-term outlook for synthetic rubber, predicting a favorable fundamental environment for polybutadiene rubber in the first half of 2026, with no new production capacity expected [3]. - There is an anticipated production gap for butadiene due to continuous underinvestment in capacity compared to downstream demand, which may lead to rising prices in the coming years [3].