芦哲：中国出口“惧怕”人民币升值吗

Core Viewpoint - The impact of exchange rates on exports is gradually diminishing due to the optimization of export product structure and the absolute comparative advantage of certain high-end products [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - By the end of 2025, the RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD, potentially reaching 6.7 to 6.8 by the end of 2026, driven by market forces and policy adjustments [1]. - Since the "8.11 exchange rate reform" in 2015, the correlation between RMB exchange rate movements and export trends has weakened significantly, with a correlation coefficient of only 0.3% from September 2015 to November 2025 [2]. - During the two appreciation cycles since the reform, exports maintained stable growth despite RMB appreciation, indicating that exchange rate changes do not negatively impact export growth [2][3]. Group 2: Export Competitiveness - The actual effective exchange rate of the RMB remains low compared to major economies, providing a price advantage for Chinese exports despite the appreciation of the RMB [5]. - The central bank's refined management of the exchange rate has reduced the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports, allowing exporters to adjust pricing and lock in rates [6]. - The competitiveness of Chinese exports has been enhanced due to the continuous upgrading of industrial structure, with technology-intensive products gaining a stronger market position [9][10]. Group 3: Trade Settlement and Currency Internationalization - The proportion of RMB in international trade settlements is increasing, with RMB cross-border payments for goods trade reaching approximately 12.4 trillion yuan in 2024, a 15.9% increase year-on-year [11]. - Significant breakthroughs have been made in RMB settlement for major exports, such as large ships and aircraft, indicating a shift away from the dominance of the USD in trade transactions [12].