Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-22 06:24Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's trading volume has significantly decreased from approximately 408 billion HKD to around 100 billion HKD, indicating a lack of follow-up capital and a broader market contraction despite recent rebounds in stock price [2][8]. Trading Volume Analysis - On January 22, Alibaba's stock rose by 0.43% to 163.9 HKD, but the trading volume was only 54 billion HKD, potentially falling below 100 billion HKD for the day. This contrasts sharply with January 14, when trading volume exceeded 400 billion HKD due to positive news regarding AI products [2][8]. - The trading volume dropped approximately 75% within a week, from nearly 408 billion HKD on January 14 to about 109 billion HKD on January 21, reflecting a significant decline in market activity [3][9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in trading volume is linked to a lack of new stimulating news and a cautious approach from buyers, as the market enters a correction phase [4][10]. Revenue Growth Projections - Dongwu Securities forecasts that Alibaba's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 will reach 292.9 billion CNY, representing a 4.6% year-over-year growth, primarily impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce growth [5][11]. - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Alibaba's revenue is expected to be 280.15 billion CNY, with an 8% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EBITDA is projected at 62.05 billion CNY [5][11]. AI and Cloud Business Insights - Alibaba Cloud's revenue is anticipated to reach 42.852 billion CNY this quarter, marking a 35% year-over-year increase, with a stable EBITA margin of around 9% [6][12]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI capabilities, which could lead to sustained revenue and profit growth as AI adoption increases [6][12]. - The launch of the AI assistant product is seen as a pivotal moment for Alibaba, potentially allowing it to capture a significant share of the new internet traffic [7][13]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Alibaba's AI models have achieved significant milestones, including over 200,000 derivative models and 1 billion downloads, positioning the company as a leader in the open-source AI model space [3][9]. - The market's focus is shifting from traditional e-commerce to AI and cloud services, which are expected to contribute increasingly to Alibaba's valuation in the medium to long term [7][13].