智通财经网·2026-01-22 06:24Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is expected to experience sustained growth in domestic sales and a significant recovery in non-excavator categories, driven by positive fiscal policies and ongoing internationalization and electrification trends [1][2][3]. Group 1: Domestic Sales Growth - In December 2025, domestic excavator sales continued to grow, with total excavator sales (including exports) reaching 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [1]. - For the entire year of 2025, total excavator sales (including exports) amounted to 235,257 units, reflecting a 17.0% year-on-year growth, while domestic sales reached 118,518 units, increasing by 17.9% [1]. - Non-excavator machinery categories showed a clear recovery trend, with loader sales up 17.6%, grader sales up 70.5%, truck crane sales up 39.1%, crawler crane sales up 95.5%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 36.7% in December 2025 [1]. Group 2: Infrastructure Investment and Policy Support - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, which is expected to stimulate infrastructure investment and support downstream equipment demand [3]. - The meeting highlighted the need to optimize fiscal expenditure structures and enhance the management of local government special bond usage, which will further boost investment [3]. Group 3: Export Performance - In December 2025, excavator export sales reached 12,764 units, marking a 26.9% year-on-year increase, with total annual excavator exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [4]. - The export value of engineering machinery in December 2025 was $6.42 billion, a 27.2% increase year-on-year, while the total export value for the year was $60.17 billion, reflecting a 13.8% growth [4]. - The engineering machinery export market is expected to benefit from increased demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, despite facing challenges such as U.S.-China tariff uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Electrification Trends - Electric loader sales in December 2025 reached 2,722 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 218.7%, with an electrification rate of 22.2%, up 13.2 percentage points [5]. - For the entire year of 2025, electric loader sales totaled 29,771 units, reflecting a 165.3% year-on-year growth, with an electrification rate of 23.2%, an increase of 12.9 percentage points [5]. - The industry is expected to accelerate its electrification process, which will enhance revenue and profit for major manufacturers [5]. Group 5: Major Projects Impact - The Yaxia Hydropower Project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to significantly boost demand for engineering machinery, with equipment demand potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [8]. - The project is expected to create a strong demand for large excavators, rock tunnel boring machines, cranes, and concrete machinery, further driving the engineering machinery industry [8]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - Companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, Liugong, Shantui, and China Longgong are recommended for investment, along with component manufacturers like Hengli Hydraulic [9]. - The electrification and internationalization trends are expected to benefit traditional forklift manufacturers that have strong manufacturing and sales capabilities, with recommendations for Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group [9].