Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-22 06:29Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's trading volume has significantly decreased from approximately 408 billion HKD to around 100 billion HKD, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [2][3]. Trading Volume Analysis - On January 22, Alibaba's stock rose by 0.43% to close at 163.9 HKD, but the trading volume was only 54 billion HKD, with expectations that it might fall below 100 billion HKD [2]. - The trading volume peaked at over 400 billion HKD on January 14, driven by positive news regarding artificial intelligence products [2][3]. - A week later, on January 21, the trading volume dropped to approximately 109 billion HKD, reflecting a 75% decrease in just one week [3]. Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in trading volume is due to a lack of new stimulating news and a cautious approach from investors, who are holding onto their positions despite short-term price fluctuations [4]. - The overall market environment has also contributed to this cautious sentiment, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 27,000 points [4]. Revenue Growth Projections - East China Securities analysts predict that Alibaba's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 will reach 292.9 billion CNY, representing a 4.6% year-over-year growth, primarily impacted by a slowdown in e-commerce growth [5]. - For the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Alibaba's revenue is expected to be 280.15 billion CNY, with an 8% year-over-year increase [5]. Cloud Services Performance - Alibaba Cloud is projected to generate 42.852 billion CNY in revenue for the current quarter, marking a 35% year-over-year increase, with a stable EBITA profit margin around 9% [6]. - The company is enhancing its AI cloud services, which are expected to maintain growth due to increasing demand for AI capabilities [6]. AI and Market Position - The launch of the AI assistant product is seen as a significant milestone, potentially positioning Alibaba to capture a larger share of the internet traffic in the future [7]. - Alibaba's open-source model, which has surpassed 200,000 derivatives and 1 billion downloads, places it at the forefront of the AI model landscape [3][7].