Gold Beat Bitcoin, Oil Crashed, But Smart Money Kept Buying Crypto

Group 1: Market Performance Overview - Gold surged by 62.6% in 2025, while oil prices fell by 21.5%, and Bitcoin ended the year down by 6.4% [1] - Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs) invested nearly $50 billion into Bitcoin and Ethereum, controlling over 5% of the total supply by year-end [1] Group 2: Gold's Performance - Gold's outperformance was linked to a tariff-heavy environment, which increased uncertainty and weakened confidence in long-term currency stability, leading to defensive positioning [2] - Unlike growth assets, gold does not require expanding liquidity to rally; it responds to policy risk and geopolitical stress, making it a default hedge amid rising trade friction [3] Group 3: Oil's Performance - Oil prices fell due to tariffs slowing trade, compressing manufacturing activity, and reducing shipping volumes, which directly impacted energy demand [4] - Crude prices dropped by 21.5% in 2025 as supply remained ample and non-OPEC production increased, with oil behaving as a growth proxy in a cooling economic environment [4] Group 4: Bitcoin's Performance - Bitcoin's decline of 6.4% reflected a struggle between uncertainty from tariffs and drained discretionary liquidity, with U.S. inflation remaining moderate but sticky [5] - The market experienced a long consolidation phase after October's liquidation shock, with Bitcoin neither collapsing like oil nor rallying like gold [5] Group 5: Fiat Pressure and Inflation - Despite tariffs acting as a slow domestic tax, inflation remained controlled, with costs gradually absorbed by importers and retailers, which muted fiat stress in headline data [6] - This "slow burn" effect capped risk appetite without triggering panic, contributing to Bitcoin's range-bound performance [6] Group 6: Treasury Buyers' Behavior - DATs aggressively accumulated assets, spending $49.7 billion in 2025, with approximately half of this amount deployed in the second half of the year [7] - Their holdings rose to $134 billion by year-end, marking a 137% increase year over year, indicating long-term conviction and a willingness to accept volatility to secure supply [7]